Global efforts to decarbonize are fundamentally insufficient, according to BP’s latest annual outlook, which reveals a significant 8% increase in its long-term oil demand forecast for 2050. This revised trajectory, driven by geopolitical instability, strongly suggests that the world will fall short of achieving its crucial 2050 net-zero emissions targets, marking a critical failure in the pace of the global energy transition.
BP’s report now projects oil use to reach 83 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2050, substantially higher than its previous estimate of 77 million b/d. Natural gas demand also remains resilient, with the 2050 forecast climbing to 4,806 billion cubic meters annually. The date for peak oil demand has also been delayed by five years, now expected to hit 103 million b/d in 2030, extending the period of maximum global consumption.
The shift in BP’s analysis is heavily influenced by the global focus on energy security, which has been magnified by ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the war in Ukraine, Middle East conflicts, and the proliferation of trade tariffs. BP’s chief economist highlights that these tensions are intensifying national demands for self-sufficiency. This focus could encourage some nations to accelerate the transition to domestic, low-carbon ‘electrostates,’ but also critically risks increasing the preference for readily available domestically produced fossil fuels over imported energy alternatives.
The report delivers a clear warning about the climate cost of this delay. BP’s modeling indicates that maintaining the current energy pathway will result in cumulative carbon emissions exceeding the critical 2∘C carbon budget limit by the early 2040s. The company explicitly states that “the longer the energy system remains on its current pathway, the harder it will be to remain within a 2∘C carbon budget,” raising the economic and social costs of future necessary climate action. To meet the 2050 net-zero goal, the decline in oil demand would need to be drastic, falling to about 35 million b/d by that date.
Despite the rapid, necessary growth in clean energy sources—with wind and solar expected to meet over 80% of the increase in electricity demand by 2035—oil will maintain its dominant market position. It is forecast to remain the largest single source of primary global energy supply, retaining a 30% share in 2035. Renewables are projected to increase from 10% of primary energy supply to 15% by 2035, but are only expected to surpass oil’s market share towards the end of the 2040s, underscoring the formidable inertia that the global energy system faces.