Thailand’s rice exports are expected to decline significantly in 2026 as the strong baht weakens the country’s price competitiveness in global markets, the commerce ministry said. Exports are projected to fall to about 7 million metric tonnes next year, down from an estimated 7.88–8 million tonnes in 2025, a drop of up to 12.5%.
The baht has risen more than 10% against the US dollar this year, reaching its strongest level in over four years. While reflecting currency strength, the appreciation has made Thai rice more expensive compared with supplies from major competitors, particularly India, which has ample stocks and aggressive pricing.
Officials warned that continued currency strength could further pressure agricultural exports and worsen falling rice prices for farmers. Thailand’s rice shipments have already been under strain, with exports in the first 11 months of 2025 down more than 20% year-on-year in volume and over 30% in value, driven by lower prices, a strong baht, increased Indian supply, and reduced demand from key buyers such as the Philippines.
Despite these challenges, Thailand expects some support from long-term supply agreements, including ongoing rice sales to China and a multi-year export deal with Singapore. However, overall shipments are still set to remain well below the nearly 10 million tonnes exported last year, when Thailand ranked as the world’s second-largest rice exporter.