As President Trump prepares for a high-profile summit with Vladimir Putin in Alaska, leading analysts are warning that the Russian leader may be seeking strategic concessions, not a genuine peace. The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Putin remains “uninterested in ending his war” and is likely using the talks to extract bilateral concessions from the U.S.
This analysis casts a shadow over the August 15 meeting, which Trump has touted as a breakthrough moment. Trump told reporters he believes a deal is “very close” and has even floated the idea of “swapping of territories,” a concept that plays into fears that Russia could be rewarded for its aggression.
The summit comes at a moment of increased Western pressure. Allies are lowering the price cap on Russian oil to $47.60 per barrel, and Trump himself has threatened new sanctions if Moscow doesn’t move towards peace by the meeting date. The question is whether this pressure is enough to change Putin’s calculus.
On the Ukrainian front line, the mood is one of grim resolve. Commanders in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia see no path for negotiation, stating that defeating Russia is the only option. This perspective aligns with the view that Putin believes time is on his side and that he can outlast both Ukraine and its Western backers.